CMI says Q1 2023 had worst excess mortality since the pandemic’s second wave

13 April 2023

In light of the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s updates cover week 13 of 2023 (to 31 March) and the first quarter of 2023, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 13 April 2023.

The key points of the quarterly update are:

• In the UK, there have been around 171,600 more deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 31 March 2023. Of these, 72,900 occurred in 2020, 47,500 in 2021, 31,000 in 2022 and 20,200 in the first quarter of 2023.
• The first quarter of 2023 had the highest number of excess deaths since the pandemic’s second wave in the first quarter of 2021 (see chart below).
• There were 8,600 deaths registered in the UK in the first quarter of 2023 with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, which account for around 40% of total excess deaths.

The key points of the week 13 update are:

• The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 13 of 2023 was 1,210 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 13 of 2019; equivalent to 12% more deaths than expected.
• The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 634 in week 13 of 2023.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The first quarter of 2023 was the fourth consecutive quarter with significant excess mortality, and had the highest quarterly excess mortality since the peak of the second wave of the pandemic.

“While the quarter averaged over 600 UK COVID deaths a week, more than half of the excess was due to other causes.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.