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Highest third-quarter mortality since 2010, says CMI

11 October 2022

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers week 39 of 2022 (23 to 30 September) and the third quarter of 2022, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 October 2022.

The key points of this update are:

  • Mortality in the third quarter of 2022 was 9% higher than in the same quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, and higher than in any third quarter since 2010. This contrasts with the first half of 2022, which had similar mortality to 2019.
  • The deterioration in mortality in the third quarter was seen across a broad range of ages
  • There were 12,700 more deaths than expected from all causes in the UK in the third quarter of 2022. There were 7,300 deaths in the UK with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate during that period.
  • There have been around 137,800 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 September 2022.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The third quarter of 2022 saw unusually high mortality for the time of year – higher than any third quarter since 2010.

“Deaths with Covid on the death certificate only account for around 60% of the excess deaths seen during the quarter, so there were more deaths than expected from non-COVID causes. This contrasts with most of the pandemic period, when non-Covid deaths were lower than expected.

“Data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) suggests that increased deaths from heart and circulatory diseases have contributed to the excess seen in the third quarter. While heatwaves led to short-term increases in deaths, analysis by the ONS shows that their impact was not the primary cause of excess mortality over the quarter as a whole.”

For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).

The CMI plans to publish:

  • A weekly “summary” pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 40 of 2022 on Tuesday 18 October 2022.
  • More detailed information quarterly, with a press release. The next is planned for data to the end of 2022 in January 2023.

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.