Mortality low despite over 10,000 COVID deaths in 2022, says CMI

8 March 2022

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers week 8 of 2022 (19 to 25 February), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 8 March 2022.

The key points of this update are:

There have been 1,400 fewer deaths than expected in the UK in the first eight weeks of 2022. There were more deaths than expected in the first five weeks, but fewer than expected subsequently.

There have been around 119,000 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 25 February 2022.

There were 10,225 deaths in the UK with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate in the first eight weeks of 2022. Weekly figures have fallen from the winter peak of 1,673 in week 3 to 878 in week 8.

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).
3. The CMI publishes three types of mortality monitor:
   • A weekly “summary” pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 9 of 2022 on Tuesday 15 March 2022.
   • More detailed information quarterly, with a press release. The next is planned for week 13 of 2022 on Tuesday 12 April 2022.

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest. 

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.