CMI notes ongoing high mortality for young adults

10 October 2024

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England & Wales through its mortality monitors. Today’s updates cover week 39 of 2024 (to 27 September 2024) and the third quarter of 2024, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 9 October 2024.

The key points are:

  • Mortality in the first three-quarters of 2024 was lower than in the first three-quarters of any other year apart from 2019. There has been a significant improvement compared to 2023, with cumulative mortality rates currently 3.5% lower.
  • All age groups have seen lower mortality in the first three-quarters of 2024 than in the first three-quarters of 2023.
  • However, mortality compared to the 2014-2023 average varies significantly by age. Mortality in 2024 for ages 20-44 is 2% above the ten-year average, which includes the peak pandemic period, while mortality for ages 65-100 is 4% below it.
  • There were around 7,600 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the first three-quarters of 2024, compared to around 13,600 in the first three-quarters of 2023 and 27,000 in the first three-quarters of 2022.
  • The impact of death certificate reform on 9 September 2024 means that the numbers of deaths registered in recent weeks may be inconsistent with earlier weeks.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Over the past eighteen months, overall mortality rates have been similar to the period immediately before the pandemic.

However, the overall mortality rate is dominated by pensioner mortality, which is near record lows. In sharp contrast to this, mortality for younger adults is still above the ten-year average whereas we would typically expect mortality rates to fall over time.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:

  • Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 40 of 2024 on Wednesday 16 October 2024.
  • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for the end of 2024, in January 2025.

2. Cumulative mortality is calculated assuming that mortality in the remaining part of the year is the same as for the comparative period.

3. Since 9 September 2024 death registration reforms means that the five-day period for registering a death starts on the date that the registrar receives a signed medical certificate of cause of death from the medical examiner, or relevant notification from the coroner. Previously, deaths should legally have been registered within five days of the death occurring or the date on which a body was found (including weekends and bank holidays), unless a coroner was involved. This change may have affected registration delays in the weeks after 9 September and, therefore, the statistics covering recent weeks contained in this monitor should be treated with care.

Contact

Hannah Patmore, Communications Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07519106714
Email: hannah.patmore@actuaries.org.uk 

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

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