CMI notes return of excess deaths in the second quarter of 2022

13 July 2022

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers week 26 of 2022 (25 June to 1 July) and the second quarter of 2022, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 13 July 2022.
The key points of this update are:

• Mortality in the second quarter of 2022 was around 5% higher than in the same quarter of 2019, before the pandemic.
• There were 6,900 more deaths than expected from all causes in the UK in the second quarter of 2022, and 9,100 deaths in the UK with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate during that period. In the first quarter there were 2,200 fewer all-cause deaths than expected despite 14,800 COVID-19 deaths.
• There have been around 125,100 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 1 July 2022.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “There were fewer COVID-19 deaths in the second quarter of 2022 than in the first quarter.

“However, non-COVID deaths were significantly below normal levels in the first quarter, before reverting to more typical levels in the second quarter.

“The overall effect is a return to excess all-cause mortality in the second quarter.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

Notes to Editor

1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed.

2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).

3. The CMI plans to publish:
   a. A weekly “summary” pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 27 of 2022 on Tuesday 19 July 2022.
   b. More detailed information quarterly, with a press release. The next is planned for week 39 of 2022 in October 2022.

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

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