The risk management of longevity is still in its infancy and there are a number of aspects that could improve this:
The MRSC has published an IFoA Longevity Risk Framework that is intended to address the first bullet.
The framework has been designed to achieve the following qualities:
It contains 10 risk components split between those affecting the general population and those that would affect the specific portfolio. The risk components are described in the table below.
Risk Component | Definition | Example | |
Population Risks | Event Risk | Risk of future longevity events occurring at times or with effects not consistent with the assumptions. | Reduction in smoker propensity since the 1970s |
Population Modelling Risk | Risk that modelling choices or interpretations made regarding the reference population are incorrect (or change) without the data or information changing. | Recognition of the cohort effect | |
Population Mis-estimation Risk | The risk that the reference population assumption mis-estimate the correct level of the population mortality rates. | Overestimation of mortality improvement in the late 00s (realised following the 2011 census) | |
Population Volatility Risk | Risk of short-term deviations in reference population mortality improvements from the underlying level of mortality improvement owing to systemic effects. | Poor performance of 2015 flu vaccine | |
Portfolio Risks | Heterogeneity Risk | The risk that lives with materially different longevity profiles are considered homogenous within a classification group. | Lack of behavioural or mental well-being information when determining assumptions |
Classification Risk | The risk that lives are misallocated to a classification group within the mortality basis and utilise assumptions that are not appropriate. | Inaccuracy of assumed impairment level based upon individual medical information | |
Basis Risk | The risk that the assumptions derived are not relevant to the lives in the portfolio (including geared impact on the portfolio exposure to future longevity events) | Uncertainty in relevance of the slowdown in population mortality improvements since 2011 | |
Portfolio Modelling Risk | Risk that modelling choices or interpretations made regarding the portfolio are incorrect (or change) without the data or information changing | Uncertainty in the shape and duration of anti-selection effects | |
Portfolio Mis-estimation Risk | The risk that portfolio adjustment assumptions derived from external evidence and/or empirical experience mis-estimate the correct level of the assumption | Limited credibility of experience at older ages | |
Portfolio Volatility Risk | The risk that even if the classification and the assumptions are correct the specific mortality and morbidity events that occur cause the pattern of future cashflows to change | The number of actual deaths that occur over a period may differ from the expected number of deaths though random variation |